Print ArticleThe day Russia responded to the Georgian attack on its peacekeeping force in South Ossetia marked a sharp turn in the Iranian nuclear file. Previously, the probability that the US attacks Iran or allows Israel to do was low. However, new international power balance might change planners´ opinion in Washington.
Two hundred years ago, Georgia was a province in the Safaweya State, the inherent of the Persian Empire. The early years of the nineteenth century witnessed a humiliating defeat of the Persians on the hands of Russians who annexed Georgia and Azerbaijan. Unlike Azerbaijan that became an independent state on a later stage, Georgia never became an independent except when the Soviet Union disintegrated. After the WWII, the Russian army occupied the northern parts of Iran and the allies advanced in the southern parts and another war was about to erupt, but Stalin agreed to withdraw.
Hence, the geopolitical facts of Iran dictate a balance between Russia and other international forces to keep the country sovereign, independent and integrated. In other words whatsoever the hostility between any regime in Iran and the Western powers led by the US, a special geopolitical relation exists between them. After oil was discovered in Iran in the early twentieth century, this relation became important to the West as it is to Iran.
From the American point of view, Iran should have the strength to defend itself to a certain degree against Russia until the West resolves the crisis either diplomatically or militarily. Iran should not exceed this limit of strength. At the same time Iran should not be an ally to Russia or any other international force because of the nearness to both the Middle East and Central Asia oil wells.
The last month witnessed a Western warning to Iran to accept the proposal of incentives or face consequences. Iran did not allow its nuclear program to be transparent enough and this gives a cause for the US to attack Iran. Even regional countries asked Iran to show more transparency for its nuclear program. After Russia gained a round in Caucasus, the US may decide to attack Iran to prevent Russia from having an ally, even if it would be a temporary alliance, in this sensitive geopolitical area and even if the dispute between Russia and the US will not last long. If there were a Cold-War-II or just a period of hot crisis between the two superpowers, it would be about division of interests within the future alliance.
This makes Iran an optimal target for the US to respond for Russian blow in Georgia and to show that Russia also cannot protect its friends the same way Russia did to it in Caucasus. Given that Bush-Cheney team is in its last months and what counts for the Neo-Cons is to leave victorious, these increase the probability of an American attack on Iran.
The internal factors in the US and in Iran push towards war scenario. In the US, an attack on Iran will ensure the Jewish support for McCain. With rumors, that there would be a military action against Iran Mc Cain got five points more in the last opinion poll. Comparing Obama to Mc Cain´s comments about Georgia, one finds that there is no much difference between Bush-Cheney team and their Republican nominee.
Attacking Iran after resignation of Mosharaf of Pakistan creates a wide area of chaos from Central Asia to the Arab Peninsula, a strategic target for the Neo-Cons. This achieves their other target of dividing the region according to ethnic and faith backgrounds that was announced previously. The presence of many small entities in this area makes it easier for the US to control the oil wells and make the region an ideal market for future arms sales. This also makes it possible to create disturbances in Russian Islamic Republics and in the Chinese Moslem regions. Strategically, chaos in Central Asia moves the defence lines of the West inside Russia and China and away from oil fields.
The deal with Iran was about allowing the Iranians to have a limited strength and using the Persian State to safeguard Central Asia oil fields. The alternative is reducing its power to the level that it would be occupied by keeping the existence of the state itself. The price of the second option is receiving retaliatory attacks on the American army in Iraq, American bases in the Gulf and on Israel. Should the US be ready to bear the cost, its B52 bombers would fly to their targets?
Unfortunately, the Iranian regime seems to believe its propaganda about becoming a superpower. Politicians may circulate this propaganda for internal causes but strategic calculations differ much. Thinkers there cannot say what they believe except when they are from the elite of the regime. Opponents are easily accused of treason. When Iran announced that, it would launch a satellite it fired an empty-headed rocket and proclaimed that it would be able to carry satellites. Even Satellites manufacturing could be assembled and this does not reflect an ability to defeat a superpower. The propaganda that it developed a fighter that its path is three thousands kilometer is doubtful.
Until now, Iran exports crude oil and imports gasoline and this makes its military ability limited by gasoline suppliers´ will and the storage capacities, and the ability to protect the stored fuel against air raids. Its warning that it would close the Gulf would just harm it. First, the closure would be days if not hours and second if it succeeded to close it for an enough period that would harm the European interests – the Americans have strategic reserves – and it would deprive itself from the Petrodollars. The Iranians should know that a successful limited attack by the Americans B52 and ground-to-ground missiles would severely limit their navy and rocket launchers capability. Even if they severely responded against Israel and the American army in Iraq, the result will not be in their favor.
Russia does not agree to a nuclear Iran and perhaps more than the Americans do. Let us remember that the US allowed Britain and France to have nuclear weapons during the Cold War, but Russia did not permit its allies in the Eastern Block to have this capability. The rift between Russia and China was partly ideological and partly because China test fired a nuclear bomb. Like the Americans when they announced that their military personnel in Georgia have nothing to do with the Russian-Georgian war, the Russian will give Iran the lip service. Iran should re-estimate its strategic position soon. The US and the West may be relatively weaker in comparison to Russia because Russia achieved more power during Putin´s era but not when confronting middle sized countries like Iran.
The Syrians also should know that giving Tartus to Russia and allowing Russia to install long-range missiles in their country do not give a hundred per cent guarantee against being attacked. Most of Europeans told the Americans that Russia is more important than Georgia is and the channels should be open with Moscow. Iran and Syria should know that the US is more important for the Russians and they will never fight each other. Moreover, while Russia expressed angriness that Israel armed Georgia, Medevedv told Olmart during their phone call when Bashar was in Russia that Moscow would supply Syria with some advanced defensive weapons that would not change military balance in the Middle East. This shows clearly that Russia still adheres to its policy of keeping balance in the Middle East, a policy agreed between it and the US since the Cold War. This policy was the cause of the rift between Egypt and Soviet Union and October War was successful because it showed the superpowers that Egypt could break the imposed frozen situation. When The US had threatened that it would engage in the war, Sadat had agreed to a ceasefire. The problem is that Iranian orators want to fight the US.
Iran may be in its best situation to strike deals now and the alternative would be a serious war. Diplomacy should be too active now as it is time to negotiate not to side and make frank alliances. The Arabs also should know that also. The rift in NATO between old European forces and the new comers will make the new American Administration to devise some new policies for Russia. The problem lies now in Bush-Cheney and in Iranian orators´ heads.
Two hundred years ago, Georgia was a province in the Safaweya State, the inherent of the Persian Empire. The early years of the nineteenth century witnessed a humiliating defeat of the Persians on the hands of Russians who annexed Georgia and Azerbaijan. Unlike Azerbaijan that became an independent state on a later stage, Georgia never became an independent except when the Soviet Union disintegrated. After the WWII, the Russian army occupied the northern parts of Iran and the allies advanced in the southern parts and another war was about to erupt, but Stalin agreed to withdraw.
Hence, the geopolitical facts of Iran dictate a balance between Russia and other international forces to keep the country sovereign, independent and integrated. In other words whatsoever the hostility between any regime in Iran and the Western powers led by the US, a special geopolitical relation exists between them. After oil was discovered in Iran in the early twentieth century, this relation became important to the West as it is to Iran.
From the American point of view, Iran should have the strength to defend itself to a certain degree against Russia until the West resolves the crisis either diplomatically or militarily. Iran should not exceed this limit of strength. At the same time Iran should not be an ally to Russia or any other international force because of the nearness to both the Middle East and Central Asia oil wells.
The last month witnessed a Western warning to Iran to accept the proposal of incentives or face consequences. Iran did not allow its nuclear program to be transparent enough and this gives a cause for the US to attack Iran. Even regional countries asked Iran to show more transparency for its nuclear program. After Russia gained a round in Caucasus, the US may decide to attack Iran to prevent Russia from having an ally, even if it would be a temporary alliance, in this sensitive geopolitical area and even if the dispute between Russia and the US will not last long. If there were a Cold-War-II or just a period of hot crisis between the two superpowers, it would be about division of interests within the future alliance.
This makes Iran an optimal target for the US to respond for Russian blow in Georgia and to show that Russia also cannot protect its friends the same way Russia did to it in Caucasus. Given that Bush-Cheney team is in its last months and what counts for the Neo-Cons is to leave victorious, these increase the probability of an American attack on Iran.
The internal factors in the US and in Iran push towards war scenario. In the US, an attack on Iran will ensure the Jewish support for McCain. With rumors, that there would be a military action against Iran Mc Cain got five points more in the last opinion poll. Comparing Obama to Mc Cain´s comments about Georgia, one finds that there is no much difference between Bush-Cheney team and their Republican nominee.
Attacking Iran after resignation of Mosharaf of Pakistan creates a wide area of chaos from Central Asia to the Arab Peninsula, a strategic target for the Neo-Cons. This achieves their other target of dividing the region according to ethnic and faith backgrounds that was announced previously. The presence of many small entities in this area makes it easier for the US to control the oil wells and make the region an ideal market for future arms sales. This also makes it possible to create disturbances in Russian Islamic Republics and in the Chinese Moslem regions. Strategically, chaos in Central Asia moves the defence lines of the West inside Russia and China and away from oil fields.
The deal with Iran was about allowing the Iranians to have a limited strength and using the Persian State to safeguard Central Asia oil fields. The alternative is reducing its power to the level that it would be occupied by keeping the existence of the state itself. The price of the second option is receiving retaliatory attacks on the American army in Iraq, American bases in the Gulf and on Israel. Should the US be ready to bear the cost, its B52 bombers would fly to their targets?
Unfortunately, the Iranian regime seems to believe its propaganda about becoming a superpower. Politicians may circulate this propaganda for internal causes but strategic calculations differ much. Thinkers there cannot say what they believe except when they are from the elite of the regime. Opponents are easily accused of treason. When Iran announced that, it would launch a satellite it fired an empty-headed rocket and proclaimed that it would be able to carry satellites. Even Satellites manufacturing could be assembled and this does not reflect an ability to defeat a superpower. The propaganda that it developed a fighter that its path is three thousands kilometer is doubtful.
Until now, Iran exports crude oil and imports gasoline and this makes its military ability limited by gasoline suppliers´ will and the storage capacities, and the ability to protect the stored fuel against air raids. Its warning that it would close the Gulf would just harm it. First, the closure would be days if not hours and second if it succeeded to close it for an enough period that would harm the European interests – the Americans have strategic reserves – and it would deprive itself from the Petrodollars. The Iranians should know that a successful limited attack by the Americans B52 and ground-to-ground missiles would severely limit their navy and rocket launchers capability. Even if they severely responded against Israel and the American army in Iraq, the result will not be in their favor.
Russia does not agree to a nuclear Iran and perhaps more than the Americans do. Let us remember that the US allowed Britain and France to have nuclear weapons during the Cold War, but Russia did not permit its allies in the Eastern Block to have this capability. The rift between Russia and China was partly ideological and partly because China test fired a nuclear bomb. Like the Americans when they announced that their military personnel in Georgia have nothing to do with the Russian-Georgian war, the Russian will give Iran the lip service. Iran should re-estimate its strategic position soon. The US and the West may be relatively weaker in comparison to Russia because Russia achieved more power during Putin´s era but not when confronting middle sized countries like Iran.
The Syrians also should know that giving Tartus to Russia and allowing Russia to install long-range missiles in their country do not give a hundred per cent guarantee against being attacked. Most of Europeans told the Americans that Russia is more important than Georgia is and the channels should be open with Moscow. Iran and Syria should know that the US is more important for the Russians and they will never fight each other. Moreover, while Russia expressed angriness that Israel armed Georgia, Medevedv told Olmart during their phone call when Bashar was in Russia that Moscow would supply Syria with some advanced defensive weapons that would not change military balance in the Middle East. This shows clearly that Russia still adheres to its policy of keeping balance in the Middle East, a policy agreed between it and the US since the Cold War. This policy was the cause of the rift between Egypt and Soviet Union and October War was successful because it showed the superpowers that Egypt could break the imposed frozen situation. When The US had threatened that it would engage in the war, Sadat had agreed to a ceasefire. The problem is that Iranian orators want to fight the US.
Iran may be in its best situation to strike deals now and the alternative would be a serious war. Diplomacy should be too active now as it is time to negotiate not to side and make frank alliances. The Arabs also should know that also. The rift in NATO between old European forces and the new comers will make the new American Administration to devise some new policies for Russia. The problem lies now in Bush-Cheney and in Iranian orators´ heads.
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